Photo 20 Dec Evening my friends, I am longing for the POW here on December 20th…. As I was making hot laps on chair 5 today I thought back to last season and the 30 POW days I had banked at this point! Weather geeks, pundits & poppers all still trying to make a logical call on just when this season is going to happen! In reality we have great snow, Mtn. Operations has been working 24/7 and making it happen day by day. More terrain each day, great corduroy in the morning & surprisingly last through the day. A little look at the Tahoe Weather discussion: The differences between this time last year and this year is the AO was negative, the PNA was negative, and the warm pool of water in the Western Pacific was not extended quite as far to the North of Hawaii. That alone may be what has helped to keep the jetstream coming off of Eastern Asia a little stronger and further extended East which would help to pump the ridge in the Eastern Pacific. The first day of Winter is on Thursday, the La Nina has been strengthening, and the PDO is negative. That all tells me that the PNA can’t stay positive forever and it will go back to its usual La Nina negative state as we go into the Winter. That will bring the trough back down the West Coast and the storm track into the Pacific NW. On top of that the AO should also go negative if the stratospheric warming continues over Siberia pushing North and East. Be careful what you wish for in the Pacific NW because as we head into January it should be game over in Alaska and the Southwest and game on in the Pacific NW. The cold could be as impressive as the snowfall. Don’t pay attention to the AO forecast at the top of the site, it is too early for it to catch onto the rising heights over the Arctic from the stratospheric warming. The storm train is already showing up on the models starting next week in Washington and then starting to push South. Here in Tahoe we will need the jet stream to push further South down the coast. One way is for the ridge to retrograde allowing the trough to dig off the coast, but that is not showing up yet because of the positive PNA keeping the ridge off the coast. The other way is for the jet stream to be pushed South by blocking setting up to the North and an Arctic plunge down the coast crushing the ridge. The stratospheric warming and probable flip of the AO to negative would be something to watch for if this is going to really get good. The latter scenario is being seen on the forecast models as about 50% of the ensembles and 50% of the operational runs are showing the jetstream crashing into Tahoe around or just after the New Year. Remember from the last post that we can see signs in the long-range that would point towards the flip and now we just have to wait for more model runs to catch onto the pattern change…. There is more @ http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/ So as I am sitting in my office here, I look out my window and dream of the 1st POW day for 2012! More to come my friends, Stay’n Thirsty, Coop  

Evening my friends,

I am longing for the POW here on December 20th…. As I was making hot laps on chair 5 today I thought back to last season and the 30 POW days I had banked at this point! Weather geeks, pundits & poppers all still trying to make a logical call on just when this season is going to happen! In reality we have great snow, Mtn. Operations has been working 24/7 and making it happen day by day. More terrain each day, great corduroy in the morning & surprisingly last through the day.

A little look at the Tahoe Weather discussion: The differences between this time last year and this year is the AO was negative, the PNA was negative, and the warm pool of water in the Western Pacific was not extended quite as far to the North of Hawaii. That alone may be what has helped to keep the jetstream coming off of Eastern Asia a little stronger and further extended East which would help to pump the ridge in the Eastern Pacific.

The first day of Winter is on Thursday, the La Nina has been strengthening, and the PDO is negative. That all tells me that the PNA can’t stay positive forever and it will go back to its usual La Nina negative state as we go into the Winter. That will bring the trough back down the West Coast and the storm track into the Pacific NW. On top of that the AO should also go negative if the stratospheric warming continues over Siberia pushing North and East.

Be careful what you wish for in the Pacific NW because as we head into January it should be game over in Alaska and the Southwest and game on in the Pacific NW. The cold could be as impressive as the snowfall. Don’t pay attention to the AO forecast at the top of the site, it is too early for it to catch onto the rising heights over the Arctic from the stratospheric warming. The storm train is already showing up on the models starting next week in Washington and then starting to push South.

Here in Tahoe we will need the jet stream to push further South down the coast. One way is for the ridge to retrograde allowing the trough to dig off the coast, but that is not showing up yet because of the positive PNA keeping the ridge off the coast. The other way is for the jet stream to be pushed South by blocking setting up to the North and an Arctic plunge down the coast crushing the ridge. The stratospheric warming and probable flip of the AO to negative would be something to watch for if this is going to really get good.

The latter scenario is being seen on the forecast models as about 50% of the ensembles and 50% of the operational runs are showing the jetstream crashing into Tahoe around or just after the New Year. Remember from the last post that we can see signs in the long-range that would point towards the flip and now we just have to wait for more model runs to catch onto the pattern change…. There is more @ http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/ 
So as I am sitting in my office here, I look out my window and dream of the 1st POW day for 2012! More to come my friends,
Stay’n Thirsty,

Coop